Paper research — no track record
Paper research — no track record yet. No real-money results.
TightRope has no record of real results. TradeBotAlpha has not run it with real money. What the site shows is the rule, its daily or monthly reading, and the data each reading used. It also shows hypothetical results: what the rule would have done on past prices, computed after the rule was chosen from those same prices, with the costs assumed and the date they run to. They are labelled as hypothetical wherever they appear, and they are not a record.
How the rule works
Reads the trend of QQQ, the plain Nasdaq-100 fund — never the leveraged one.
Combines several trend and momentum checks: the more of them agree the market is rising, the larger the position.
Holds less when the market has been turbulent, and never more than the trend checks allow.
Holds that share in TQQQ and the rest in cash. Never short.
Holds: TQQQ (3× daily Nasdaq-100 fund), Cash. Checked every trading day near the close; very small changes are skipped.
A leveraged fund that resets every day
Both products use TQQQ, a leveraged fund that resets daily. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value.
TQQQ aims for three times the Nasdaq-100's move for one day at a time. Over longer periods it does not track three times the index, and it loses value in choppy markets even when the index ends flat. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value. Following either rule means holding one for months.
TightRope's own risks
TQQQ is a leveraged fund that resets daily. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value, and they lose value in choppy markets even when the index ends flat.
The rule can be partly invested through a long, slow decline and lose a large share of the account.
The rule trades often, so trading costs matter.
How the rule was chosen, and what testing found
Chosen by studying the past. This version of the rule was picked after several earlier versions did poorly on the same past prices it was then checked on. A rule chosen that way usually does worse on new prices than it looked on the old ones.
Most of the history it was studied on was a long rise for the Nasdaq-100. Checked on simulated leveraged funds through the long decline of the early 2000s, it lost most of its value.
Trading costs can cancel it out. It trades often, near the close. On the trading costs measured in paper trading, placing its trades near the close costs about as much as the difference the rule makes compared with simply holding a fixed share of TQQQ. Its value, if any, is in limiting how far the account falls, not in adding to what it earns.
A published rule, not personal advice
These are published rules, not personal advice. The rule is the same for everyone: your answers decide only whether you can sign up, never what the rule holds. Nothing here says the rules will make money.
Ways to follow it
Signals only: you see the product's target allocation and place your own orders, in your own account.
TightRope is not offered as Managed for now. It trades near the close, and Robinhood, the brokerage Managed would use, has no order that fills at the closing price. Placing TightRope's frequent trades as market orders shortly before the close costs too much for a rule that trades this often. You can follow TightRope with Signals only.
Separate from TradeBotAlpha's trading bot
TradeBotAlpha's own trading bot does not trade leveraged funds, and its research does not support holding them for its own book. These products are separate: their own rules, records and disclosures. Nothing a product does counts as evidence for the bot, and nothing the bot does counts as evidence for a product.
Hypothetical results over the last 5, 10 and 15 years
Hypothetical results, not actual trading. The rule was chosen by studying this same history, which makes past results look better than future ones are likely to be. No real money has followed this rule. Past performance, real or hypothetical, does not predict future results.
At the trading costs measured in paper trading, most of the rule's difference from a fixed holding is used up by costs.
The figures in red are the worst fall: the most each one dropped below its own high point before recovering. Under it is the worst full calendar year.
| Period |
QQQ |
TQQQ |
TightRope |
Same-exposure mix |
5 years
Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
|
+16.5% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
|
+21.8% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
|
+24.4% a year
worst fall −38.7%
worst year 2022: −28.7%
|
+19.5% a year
worst fall −59.2%
worst year 2022: −56.1%
|
10 years
Oct 2016 – Oct 2026
|
+21.1% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
|
+41.5% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
|
+30.4% a year
worst fall −38.7%
worst year 2022: −28.7%
|
+31.5% a year
worst fall −62.5%
worst year 2022: −59.4%
|
15 years
Oct 2011 – Oct 2026
|
+20.2% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
|
+44.7% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
|
+26.9% a year
worst fall −38.7%
worst year 2022: −28.7%
|
+32.5% a year
worst fall −63.4%
worst year 2022: −60.3%
|
5 years Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
- QQQ
-
+16.5% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
- TQQQ
-
+21.8% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
- TightRope
-
+24.4% a year
worst fall −38.7%
worst year 2022: −28.7%
- Same-exposure mix
-
+19.5% a year
worst fall −59.2%
worst year 2022: −56.1%
10 years Oct 2016 – Oct 2026
- QQQ
-
+21.1% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
- TQQQ
-
+41.5% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
- TightRope
-
+30.4% a year
worst fall −38.7%
worst year 2022: −28.7%
- Same-exposure mix
-
+31.5% a year
worst fall −62.5%
worst year 2022: −59.4%
15 years Oct 2011 – Oct 2026
- QQQ
-
+20.2% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
- TQQQ
-
+44.7% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
- TightRope
-
+26.9% a year
worst fall −38.7%
worst year 2022: −28.7%
- Same-exposure mix
-
+32.5% a year
worst fall −63.4%
worst year 2022: −60.3%
- Trading costs assumed: 0.25% of every dollar traded — about the slippage measured when this rule was paper traded. Cash is assumed to earn what a Treasury bill fund (BIL) earned.
- Figures to the close of October 9, 2026, from split- and dividend-adjusted daily prices of QQQ, TQQQ and BIL. Taxes and fees other than trading costs are not included.
- QQQ and TQQQ: bought once and held. Same-exposure mix: TQQQ and BIL, rebalanced every day to the product's own average TQQQ share over the same period, charged the same trading costs. Each cell shows the yearly return with the worst fall from a peak under it; the last line is the worst full calendar year.
- Both products use TQQQ, a leveraged fund that resets daily. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value.
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