Paper research — no track record
Paper research — no track record yet. No real-money results.
Glide has no record of real results. TradeBotAlpha has not run it with real money. What the site shows is the rule, its daily or monthly reading, and the data each reading used. It also shows hypothetical results: what the rule would have done on past prices, computed after the rule was chosen from those same prices, with the costs assumed and the date they run to. They are labelled as hypothetical wherever they appear, and they are not a record.
How the rule works
Once a month, measures how turbulent TQQQ has been recently.
Holds more TQQQ when it has been calm and less when it has been choppy, never more than the whole account.
Puts the rest in BIL, a Treasury bill fund.
Holds that mix until the next month.
Holds: TQQQ (3× daily Nasdaq-100 fund), BIL (1–3 month Treasury bill fund). Set once a month, at month end, and held through the next month.
A leveraged fund that resets every day
Both products use TQQQ, a leveraged fund that resets daily. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value.
TQQQ aims for three times the Nasdaq-100's move for one day at a time. Over longer periods it does not track three times the index, and it loses value in choppy markets even when the index ends flat. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value. Following either rule means holding one for months.
Glide's own risks
TQQQ is a leveraged fund that resets daily. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value, and they lose value in choppy markets even when the index ends flat.
The position is set once a month, so a sharp fall within the month is not reacted to.
Sizing by volatility does not prevent large losses when a fall starts from a calm market.
How the rule was chosen, and what testing found
Chosen by studying the past. Its volatility target was the one setting of five tried that looked best on the same past prices it was checked on. A rule chosen that way usually does worse on new prices than it looked on the old ones.
A test we registered in advance failed. Glide holds more of a 3× fund on average than plain QQQ exposure would give. We compared it with simply holding that same average share of TQQQ every day, and the rule's monthly timing did not add anything: its lead over QQQ came from higher average exposure, not timing.
What it changes is the shape of the falls, not the gains: it holds less when the fund has been volatile. That is not a promise about any future fall.
A published rule, not personal advice
These are published rules, not personal advice. The rule is the same for everyone: your answers decide only whether you can sign up, never what the rule holds. Nothing here says the rules will make money.
Ways to follow it
Signals only: you see the product's target allocation and place your own orders, in your own account.
Managed: not available. There is a waitlist, then a shadow mode that records what the rule would order for an amount you choose and orders nothing. Ordering for you would need your separate, later agreement, and is not built.
Separate from TradeBotAlpha's trading bot
TradeBotAlpha's own trading bot does not trade leveraged funds, and its research does not support holding them for its own book. These products are separate: their own rules, records and disclosures. Nothing a product does counts as evidence for the bot, and nothing the bot does counts as evidence for a product.
Hypothetical results over the last 5, 10 and 15 years
Hypothetical results, not actual trading. The rule was chosen by studying this same history, which makes past results look better than future ones are likely to be. No real money has followed this rule. Past performance, real or hypothetical, does not predict future results.
A pre-registered test found Glide's lead over QQQ came from holding more exposure, not from timing; compare it with the same-exposure column.
The figures in red are the worst fall: the most each one dropped below its own high point before recovering. Under it is the worst full calendar year.
| Period |
QQQ |
TQQQ |
Glide |
Same-exposure mix |
5 years
Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
|
+16.5% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
|
+21.8% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
|
+20.4% a year
worst fall −28.5%
worst year 2022: −24.4%
|
+15.7% a year
worst fall −40.0%
worst year 2022: −37.3%
|
10 years
Oct 2016 – Oct 2026
|
+21.1% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
|
+41.5% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
|
+23.3% a year
worst fall −28.5%
worst year 2022: −24.4%
|
+23.9% a year
worst fall −45.6%
worst year 2022: −42.7%
|
15 years
Oct 2011 – Oct 2026
|
+20.2% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
|
+44.7% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
|
+22.4% a year
worst fall −28.5%
worst year 2022: −24.4%
|
+24.7% a year
worst fall −48.1%
worst year 2022: −45.2%
|
5 years Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
- QQQ
-
+16.5% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
- TQQQ
-
+21.8% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
- Glide
-
+20.4% a year
worst fall −28.5%
worst year 2022: −24.4%
- Same-exposure mix
-
+15.7% a year
worst fall −40.0%
worst year 2022: −37.3%
10 years Oct 2016 – Oct 2026
- QQQ
-
+21.1% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
- TQQQ
-
+41.5% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
- Glide
-
+23.3% a year
worst fall −28.5%
worst year 2022: −24.4%
- Same-exposure mix
-
+23.9% a year
worst fall −45.6%
worst year 2022: −42.7%
15 years Oct 2011 – Oct 2026
- QQQ
-
+20.2% a year
worst fall −35.1%
worst year 2022: −32.6%
- TQQQ
-
+44.7% a year
worst fall −81.7%
worst year 2022: −79.1%
- Glide
-
+22.4% a year
worst fall −28.5%
worst year 2022: −24.4%
- Same-exposure mix
-
+24.7% a year
worst fall −48.1%
worst year 2022: −45.2%
- Trading costs assumed: 0.10% of every dollar traded. The rest of the account earns what the Treasury bill fund (BIL) earned.
- Figures to the close of October 9, 2026, from split- and dividend-adjusted daily prices of QQQ, TQQQ and BIL. Taxes and fees other than trading costs are not included.
- QQQ and TQQQ: bought once and held. Same-exposure mix: TQQQ and BIL, rebalanced every day to the product's own average TQQQ share over the same period, charged the same trading costs. Each cell shows the yearly return with the worst fall from a peak under it; the last line is the worst full calendar year.
- Both products use TQQQ, a leveraged fund that resets daily. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value.
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